The reality of story points

Published: March 27, 2025

What is 1 story point?

I bet if you ask 10 people, you'll get 10 different answers.
Yet, we "estimate" and measure based on that.

What is the origin of story points?

Story points originated from Extreme Programming (XP) as a way to estimate effort without tying it directly to time. The idea was to move away from inaccurate time-based estimates and instead use a relative sizing approach.

They were inspired by techniques like Wideband Delphi (derived from Delphi method as a forecasting tool) and Planning Poker, where teams collectively assign values based on the estimated complexity, known risks, and guesstimated effort.

What problem did it want to solve?

Traditional time-based estimation often led to missed deadlines and unrealistic commitments.
Story points aimed to solve this by:

Encouraging relative estimation over absolute time-based guesses.
Reducing pressure on developers to commit to unrealistic timelines.
Allowing teams to adjust based on historical velocity rather than gut feeling.

What are the common alternatives?

While story points are widely used, some teams prefer:

Time-based estimation: Estimating directly in hours or days.
No estimates: Delivering work in small, consistent chunks and tracking throughput instead.
T-shirt sizing: Categorizing work into Small, Medium, Large, and XL sizes.

Why none work?

Every estimation method has flaws:

Time-based estimation: It is almost impossible to predict everything in creative domains where things change quite fast.
No estimates: It works well for mature teams but can be hard to adopt in traditional orgs.
T-shirt sizing: It's still a form of estimation but lacks granularity.

Ultimately, estimation is always imperfect because software development involves uncertainty and variability.

When things cannot be estimated properly, how can developers commit to what they promise as when they are "estimated"?
If estimation is not important and failing them is okay, then why do we need to pressure? Is it okay to train our team to estimate to fail? Will that become a part of the culture?

If it is not okay to fail, then, these estimates will be used as a tool to pressure and point at the most important assets of modern companies when timelines are not met.

What to do instead?

Instead of obsessing over story points or alternative estimation methods, teams should focus on:

Delivering work in small, manageable increments.
Tracking actual throughput over time.
Communicating openly about uncertainties and risks.
Using historical data to have an idea about the future and be open to continuously keep their plans updated.
Removing the "update to me" management style, and build teams based on trust.

The goal isn't perfect estimation—it's delivering value consistently and somehow predictably.

Remember, quantifying uncertainty doesn't eliminate it. It just gives the illusion of control.
The main values rely on things that are qualitative, and cannot be easily measured.

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